* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 28 29 30 30 32 37 37 36 36 35 34 38 42 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 28 29 30 30 32 37 37 36 36 35 34 38 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 28 29 29 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 8 9 11 20 28 15 13 17 15 20 12 4 10 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 3 4 3 2 -5 0 -4 -4 0 -3 -1 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 346 359 351 350 354 7 53 42 21 53 75 83 93 99 120 16 22 SST (C) 23.1 23.8 24.2 23.4 23.1 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.6 16.5 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 91 96 99 94 92 96 98 100 101 100 99 98 100 102 103 70 68 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -56.2 -55.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 39 41 45 46 45 45 43 45 46 47 43 44 46 47 47 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 16 16 17 17 16 16 16 15 13 12 10 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -55 -47 -40 -24 3 43 64 65 63 37 10 -17 -68 -112 -155 -136 200 MB DIV 3 -19 -31 -23 -15 -46 -36 -21 -9 -29 -22 -10 14 -10 -3 -24 8 700-850 TADV 7 3 2 2 1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 6 1 4 4 8 8 LAND (KM) 934 983 1037 1129 1223 1444 1619 1729 1796 1776 1673 1507 1286 1020 703 480 371 LAT (DEG N) 39.3 39.3 39.2 38.8 38.4 37.0 35.4 34.0 33.0 32.8 33.3 34.3 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 46.4 45.4 44.3 43.2 41.4 40.8 41.2 41.8 42.7 44.0 45.7 47.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 5 7 10 11 13 13 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. -24. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 2. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 8. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 39.3 47.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.0% 5.3% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/16/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 28 29 30 30 32 37 37 36 36 35 34 38 42 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 28 29 30 30 32 37 37 36 36 35 34 38 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 26 27 28 28 30 35 35 34 34 33 32 36 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 23 23 25 30 30 29 29 28 27 31 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT