* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 41 38 35 33 33 29 29 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 47 41 38 35 33 33 29 29 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 47 42 38 35 31 29 27 24 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 7 8 10 10 15 14 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -3 -3 0 2 5 8 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 297 263 272 267 236 204 179 207 234 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.8 25.4 25.3 25.3 26.2 26.5 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 107 111 113 120 119 118 128 131 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 53 49 45 40 38 40 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 18 19 17 15 15 12 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 14 16 20 22 9 -5 -10 -16 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 27 19 -14 -28 13 30 20 10 28 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 1 2 7 9 7 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2078 1906 1733 1543 1352 974 578 185 56 236 373 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.5 137.1 138.7 140.5 142.2 145.8 149.5 153.2 156.4 159.8 163.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 16 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -12. -15. -18. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -17. -20. -22. -22. -26. -26. -28. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 135.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##