* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 33 35 36 42 42 43 44 44 43 49 52 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 33 35 36 42 42 43 44 44 43 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 33 33 32 31 32 33 35 37 38 37 35 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 8 8 18 24 17 16 10 18 17 12 15 21 26 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 -1 0 -1 -5 -1 -5 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 358 345 340 352 337 36 47 40 42 61 87 73 50 15 358 6 336 SST (C) 23.7 24.2 23.3 23.1 23.7 23.9 24.4 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.2 15.8 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 95 99 93 93 96 96 99 103 101 100 99 100 102 102 101 71 69 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.2 -56.4 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -55.8 -55.2 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -53.8 -53.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 7 7 7 6 5 1 0 700-500 MB RH 40 43 45 45 45 45 42 48 47 46 44 45 46 48 48 53 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 18 19 18 18 17 19 17 17 17 16 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -48 -40 -24 -4 31 57 76 73 57 39 16 -8 -55 -92 -87 -69 200 MB DIV -28 -33 -26 -23 -28 -48 -45 -6 -13 -20 -16 8 0 -11 -6 5 17 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 0 3 -5 -1 -5 8 12 2 LAND (KM) 962 1035 1113 1232 1352 1559 1707 1800 1802 1721 1576 1399 1206 936 623 360 319 LAT (DEG N) 39.5 39.3 39.1 38.5 37.8 36.2 34.5 33.3 32.9 33.1 33.8 34.9 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.4 45.3 44.1 42.9 41.8 40.6 40.7 41.1 41.9 43.3 45.2 47.1 48.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 8 8 5 5 7 9 9 11 13 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -14. -18. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 39.5 46.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.40 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.4% 6.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/17/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/17/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 31 33 33 35 36 42 42 43 44 44 43 49 52 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 32 32 34 35 41 41 42 43 43 42 48 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 29 31 32 38 38 39 40 40 39 45 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 22 24 25 31 31 32 33 33 32 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT