* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 37 40 41 42 42 42 43 46 49 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 37 40 41 42 42 42 43 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 32 31 31 32 33 34 36 37 36 33 31 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 7 10 21 18 18 15 14 16 13 10 13 23 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 338 332 331 345 13 54 56 37 45 53 64 59 40 2 358 8 354 SST (C) 24.2 23.3 23.1 23.7 23.8 24.1 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.4 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.2 17.8 17.1 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 99 94 92 96 96 98 102 100 100 99 97 100 101 99 74 72 69 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.3 -56.1 -55.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 43 43 43 45 47 48 44 45 46 48 50 52 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 19 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 17 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -40 -24 -3 8 52 68 73 64 44 18 -2 -44 -78 -97 -101 -102 200 MB DIV -32 -26 -32 -32 -40 -38 -35 -3 -21 -19 -3 11 0 -11 -14 11 3 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -5 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 6 -8 1 0 5 14 15 LAND (KM) 1024 1126 1230 1338 1447 1625 1758 1786 1750 1640 1466 1240 999 765 563 441 428 LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.0 38.5 37.8 37.1 35.4 33.9 33.3 33.2 33.7 34.7 36.3 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.3 44.1 42.9 42.0 41.2 40.7 40.8 41.4 42.4 43.8 45.7 47.5 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 5 7 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -14. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 16. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 39.4 45.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/17/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 37 40 41 42 42 42 43 46 49 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 40 41 41 41 42 45 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 28 29 30 33 36 37 38 38 38 39 42 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 30 31 31 31 32 35 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT