* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 35 34 32 29 28 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 35 34 32 29 28 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 33 30 27 24 22 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 7 12 15 20 33 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 1 5 9 6 10 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 263 252 230 230 163 157 209 251 271 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.4 25.2 25.3 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 112 114 119 120 118 119 128 132 136 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 47 45 43 39 38 39 38 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 16 16 13 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 20 20 21 6 -6 -7 -16 -23 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 -15 -32 -1 10 39 18 0 15 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 2 5 6 5 -3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1720 1526 1332 1141 950 548 162 109 214 410 676 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.2 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.8 140.6 142.4 144.2 146.0 149.8 153.5 156.9 160.6 163.8 166.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 18 17 17 16 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -15. -16. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 138.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##