* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 32 33 35 39 40 38 38 37 36 34 36 37 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 32 33 35 39 40 38 38 37 36 34 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 28 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 9 14 21 15 22 10 19 20 15 12 11 13 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 339 350 347 6 41 48 47 37 38 81 77 87 44 14 10 17 30 SST (C) 23.1 23.3 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.4 25.3 25.3 24.9 24.4 24.2 24.2 23.8 22.9 22.8 20.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 92 94 98 98 98 99 105 105 103 100 100 99 96 92 91 80 79 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.3 -55.7 -55.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 44 46 45 50 47 46 42 43 42 43 43 45 48 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 19 18 18 19 18 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -20 0 9 37 58 76 59 49 27 -7 -31 -64 -96 -125 -118 -98 200 MB DIV -28 -29 -39 -42 -47 -36 -19 -24 -28 -19 -6 -1 2 -11 -6 -19 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 0 -4 -4 -1 0 0 2 -2 3 -9 2 3 11 16 LAND (KM) 1157 1273 1390 1492 1596 1755 1840 1815 1744 1582 1343 1109 908 716 623 649 685 LAT (DEG N) 38.9 38.2 37.5 36.8 36.1 34.5 33.3 33.2 33.3 34.2 35.8 37.5 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.6 42.6 41.6 40.9 40.1 39.8 40.3 41.0 42.3 44.0 46.0 47.7 48.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 7 4 4 7 10 11 10 10 12 12 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -20. -23. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.9 43.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/17/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/17/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 32 33 35 39 40 38 38 37 36 34 36 37 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 31 32 34 38 39 37 37 36 35 33 35 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 28 29 31 35 36 34 34 33 32 30 32 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 22 24 28 29 27 27 26 25 23 25 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT