* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 35 33 28 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 35 33 28 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 35 33 29 26 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 11 6 14 16 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 6 7 4 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 242 221 222 201 150 193 250 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.7 25.4 25.4 25.8 25.4 25.4 26.3 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 113 120 120 124 120 120 129 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 44 44 40 39 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 15 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 16 19 14 -3 -8 -10 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -24 1 17 40 27 16 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 2 7 8 11 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1541 1350 1159 972 787 395 85 251 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.5 142.3 144.1 145.9 147.7 151.5 155.2 158.5 162.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 18 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -17. -21. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 140.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/17/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##