* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 36 37 38 38 37 37 36 36 37 38 41 44 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 36 37 38 38 37 37 36 36 37 38 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 37 37 37 36 36 35 35 35 34 32 31 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 16 20 19 13 13 12 23 23 17 15 10 12 18 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -6 0 -1 -4 -2 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 312 6 32 39 35 31 23 42 65 67 84 90 38 24 45 68 115 SST (C) 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.1 24.3 25.0 25.2 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.2 23.8 24.8 17.1 20.1 20.1 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 97 99 98 97 98 103 104 101 100 99 100 97 103 73 81 80 78 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.4 -56.1 -55.7 -55.1 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 47 48 52 49 50 44 46 42 42 40 41 39 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 15 13 12 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 1 16 45 59 63 73 67 54 37 11 -16 -55 -94 -130 -155 -159 -136 200 MB DIV -30 -50 -48 -20 -38 -14 -30 -18 -3 -16 -12 5 -11 -15 -21 -35 -37 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -4 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 -4 2 7 15 19 13 LAND (KM) 1410 1521 1633 1704 1775 1828 1800 1690 1556 1364 1112 868 634 491 608 857 1128 LAT (DEG N) 37.8 36.9 36.0 35.4 34.7 33.7 33.4 34.0 34.5 35.7 37.5 39.4 41.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 40.2 39.6 39.4 39.1 39.8 40.9 42.0 43.9 45.7 47.6 49.1 50.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 7 9 10 12 11 9 13 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -7. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 37.8 40.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/18/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 35 36 37 38 38 37 37 36 36 37 38 41 44 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 34 35 36 36 35 35 34 34 35 36 39 42 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 31 32 33 33 32 32 31 31 32 33 36 39 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 26 27 27 26 26 25 25 26 27 30 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT