* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 35 35 37 39 39 38 37 35 33 35 33 34 39 44 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 35 35 37 39 39 38 37 35 33 35 33 34 39 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 35 37 38 37 37 37 37 36 35 34 33 35 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 18 13 13 14 8 18 17 17 13 9 7 8 7 3 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -5 -3 -5 0 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 23 37 34 27 22 17 49 63 69 83 83 76 46 66 68 62 325 SST (C) 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.2 24.6 24.1 24.1 24.3 24.6 18.2 19.1 18.6 17.7 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 101 102 103 102 104 108 105 101 98 99 100 102 74 78 76 73 73 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.0 -55.7 -55.5 -55.0 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 49 52 50 50 45 45 41 42 41 40 41 44 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 19 18 17 16 14 15 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 58 59 67 66 63 61 42 25 -3 -43 -83 -127 -141 -150 -119 -100 200 MB DIV -53 -28 -33 -10 -14 -30 -13 -3 -16 2 -8 -14 -25 0 -9 -6 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 -1 -1 0 4 13 6 0 LAND (KM) 1644 1718 1793 1805 1816 1792 1709 1558 1376 1164 929 697 538 543 748 1013 1263 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 35.3 34.5 34.3 34.0 33.7 33.9 34.8 35.7 37.1 38.9 41.0 43.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.4 39.3 39.1 39.3 39.5 40.5 41.8 43.2 45.4 47.3 48.8 49.3 48.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 3 4 5 7 9 10 10 11 10 11 14 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -19. -23. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -0. -2. -1. 4. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 36.0 39.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 9.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.9% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/18/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 35 35 37 39 39 38 37 35 33 35 33 34 39 44 18HR AGO 35 34 33 34 34 36 38 38 37 36 34 32 34 32 33 38 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 34 36 36 35 34 32 30 32 30 31 36 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 29 29 28 27 25 23 25 23 24 29 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT