* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 41 41 41 42 39 38 36 36 36 38 46 60 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 41 41 41 42 39 38 36 36 36 38 46 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 38 39 39 39 38 37 36 34 34 34 36 39 Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 11 11 12 11 22 17 16 13 7 14 18 21 12 24 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -5 -2 -5 -2 -1 -2 -3 -6 -1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 29 20 18 12 2 19 49 56 88 72 24 18 2 1 328 272 273 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.1 24.1 24.0 22.8 17.0 16.6 17.0 17.5 17.4 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 105 107 109 106 102 98 99 99 92 74 73 74 76 76 74 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -51.7 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 49 52 54 54 53 48 49 45 43 44 48 54 59 58 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 18 19 17 17 17 15 13 11 10 8 6 6 10 850 MB ENV VOR 62 70 70 64 64 54 29 7 -18 -70 -95 -109 -132 -104 -78 -12 58 200 MB DIV -28 -13 -7 0 -29 -24 -10 -26 -7 1 12 1 3 6 -17 -2 -4 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 19 18 24 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1808 1828 1849 1825 1801 1714 1573 1380 1171 911 609 417 540 888 1340 1422 996 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 34.1 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.9 34.6 35.7 37.1 39.1 41.7 44.4 47.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.9 40.5 41.7 43.3 45.3 47.1 48.7 49.8 48.8 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 6 9 10 11 13 13 16 16 18 20 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -1. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -14. -19. -21. -24. -27. -28. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 7. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 3. 11. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.4 39.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.22 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 11.2% 8.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.7% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/19/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 41 41 41 42 39 38 36 36 36 38 46 60 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 40 40 40 41 38 37 35 35 35 37 45 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 36 36 37 34 33 31 31 31 33 41 55 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 29 29 30 27 26 24 24 24 26 34 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT