* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 38 39 39 38 40 40 41 39 37 39 43 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 38 39 39 38 40 40 41 39 37 39 43 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 38 38 37 37 37 36 35 34 34 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 13 12 22 17 14 11 10 10 14 14 6 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -2 -3 -5 -1 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 -4 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 11 6 17 26 50 57 74 85 41 29 34 53 158 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.4 23.9 23.9 23.2 19.4 18.1 19.0 19.0 17.4 16.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 105 107 106 104 100 97 98 94 78 75 77 78 77 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 53 52 47 48 44 39 38 39 41 45 46 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 19 18 16 16 16 15 14 13 10 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 61 65 57 55 38 12 -10 -56 -89 -124 -135 -125 -88 -53 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -12 -19 -33 -21 -1 -14 -9 -13 5 1 -1 -16 -25 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 12 19 15 11 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1836 1821 1806 1755 1704 1558 1394 1150 856 605 481 602 861 1288 1330 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 33.8 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.7 35.6 37.3 39.6 42.1 44.7 46.3 46.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.3 39.8 40.4 41.0 41.7 43.4 45.2 47.1 48.8 48.9 47.5 44.9 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 8 10 12 12 13 13 12 16 23 25 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -18. -22. -22. -24. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 4. 8. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.9 39.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.22 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 11.4% 8.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.2% 3.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/19/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 38 39 39 38 40 40 41 39 37 39 43 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 37 38 38 37 39 39 40 38 36 38 42 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 34 34 33 35 35 36 34 32 34 38 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 28 28 27 29 29 30 28 26 28 32 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT