* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 32 31 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 34 32 31 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 30 28 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 22 29 42 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 8 8 6 2 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 227 230 242 261 270 272 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.4 27.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 131 136 137 141 141 143 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 36 34 34 30 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 -16 -14 -14 -19 -25 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 -8 -1 17 0 -7 3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 11 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 138 245 412 440 526 852 1222 1596 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.2 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.9 157.8 159.7 161.6 163.5 167.5 171.3 174.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 11 13 20 12 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -15. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.7 155.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##