* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 07/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 54 57 57 51 43 36 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 54 57 57 51 43 36 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 41 42 41 37 31 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 4 6 12 12 18 21 21 18 23 25 30 33 39 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 4 5 2 2 7 3 4 10 7 12 15 16 15 13 SHEAR DIR 304 302 323 317 324 307 291 262 274 277 274 241 237 234 230 218 218 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 26.9 26.4 25.7 24.6 24.0 23.6 23.1 22.4 21.8 21.4 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 147 148 148 143 132 126 118 107 101 97 91 83 77 73 68 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 76 74 73 71 67 66 66 65 61 57 52 52 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 13 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 7 10 7 9 2 -7 -26 -29 -14 -10 -14 -31 -39 -22 -14 200 MB DIV 71 67 85 101 81 73 73 97 38 -21 -3 -8 -15 8 2 18 4 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 3 1 6 0 -1 0 0 0 3 6 10 17 LAND (KM) 1235 1307 1335 1361 1411 1485 1543 1545 1545 1522 1466 1397 1331 1273 1274 1294 1333 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.4 14.2 15.2 15.9 16.9 18.0 19.3 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.3 115.5 116.6 117.8 119.9 121.6 122.8 123.5 124.2 124.7 125.1 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 10 8 7 5 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 19 13 14 15 12 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 28. 29. 28. 26. 22. 17. 12. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 24. 27. 27. 21. 13. 6. 0. -6. -13. -20. -27. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 113.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 07/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 25.3% 18.9% 15.5% 0.0% 21.1% 16.8% 8.5% Logistic: 19.3% 72.9% 50.3% 42.5% 9.1% 41.0% 17.5% 7.6% Bayesian: 5.8% 29.2% 17.9% 8.1% 0.5% 11.1% 3.6% 0.0% Consensus: 12.3% 42.5% 29.0% 22.0% 3.2% 24.4% 12.6% 5.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 07/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##