* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 45 47 46 45 44 45 46 48 47 50 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 45 47 46 45 44 45 46 48 47 50 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 44 45 45 44 43 42 40 40 40 40 39 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 11 16 15 14 16 11 12 16 21 11 3 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 -5 -1 -2 -2 -7 -6 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 7 26 35 29 50 74 69 49 34 17 22 42 105 215 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.3 18.6 18.5 17.6 18.1 17.4 18.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 105 102 101 98 98 100 100 76 76 73 74 74 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 49 46 46 43 40 38 41 42 44 47 49 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 19 20 19 17 16 16 16 17 15 15 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 63 62 56 39 26 4 -29 -53 -98 -119 -112 -75 -63 -60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -19 -29 -34 -14 -27 16 9 7 -13 3 6 -13 -11 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 1 6 11 14 19 17 -10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1814 1775 1738 1690 1643 1476 1271 1034 765 555 525 637 810 1116 1506 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 33.8 33.8 34.0 34.2 35.1 36.4 38.2 40.4 42.8 45.1 46.7 47.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.9 40.6 41.4 42.0 42.6 44.4 46.3 47.8 49.1 48.6 46.6 44.3 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 7 9 10 11 12 13 12 10 11 16 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -12. -12. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. -14. -14. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 10. 12. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.8 39.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.4% 9.1% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 7.8% 5.6% 2.5% 1.2% 5.4% 2.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.8% 4.9% 3.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/19/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 44 45 47 46 45 44 45 46 48 47 50 52 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 44 43 42 41 42 43 45 44 47 49 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 40 39 38 37 38 39 41 40 43 45 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 32 31 30 31 32 34 33 36 38 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT