* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 07/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 35 32 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 35 37 35 32 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 9 11 18 18 18 20 20 22 25 32 41 41 42 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 4 2 0 4 7 4 8 10 16 17 15 10 9 1 SHEAR DIR 304 306 305 313 301 291 270 258 262 264 244 247 234 225 231 239 245 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.0 26.6 25.5 24.7 24.1 23.8 23.2 21.8 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 146 144 134 129 116 108 102 99 94 79 76 74 73 79 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -51.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 74 72 71 69 68 68 69 67 63 56 55 52 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 7 13 6 9 15 7 -2 -12 -5 3 9 -1 -25 -51 -60 -59 200 MB DIV 74 97 88 76 82 71 65 60 51 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 11 0 14 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -2 0 0 5 0 0 -3 -1 0 3 15 19 27 28 LAND (KM) 1286 1305 1357 1414 1478 1568 1630 1646 1650 1635 1597 1552 1544 1582 1573 1613 1701 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.1 18.3 19.8 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.9 117.2 118.4 119.7 121.7 123.4 124.4 125.2 126.0 126.7 127.5 128.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 14 13 12 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 22. 18. 13. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 2. -3. -9. -14. -20. -26. -33. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 114.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 07/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.5% 13.8% 10.7% 0.0% 15.6% 12.3% 6.1% Logistic: 2.7% 21.5% 8.9% 5.5% 0.6% 4.6% 1.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 13.1% 7.7% 5.4% 0.2% 6.7% 4.5% 2.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 07/19/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##