* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 07/20/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 29 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 29 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 15 21 23 24 15 17 16 20 21 29 39 41 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 -2 0 2 6 7 7 11 17 21 14 12 3 4 SHEAR DIR 307 305 306 296 298 297 278 277 248 255 242 235 219 229 229 238 244 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 26.8 25.9 25.2 24.5 24.0 23.7 22.9 21.8 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 144 142 131 121 113 105 101 98 91 79 76 75 73 75 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.0 -50.5 -50.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 70 69 71 69 71 71 71 65 61 55 52 46 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 14 14 16 19 0 -9 -10 -7 0 3 -14 -42 -52 -49 -32 200 MB DIV 73 68 71 71 58 73 89 49 60 18 -5 -11 -9 -13 13 -32 22 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 6 0 0 0 -2 0 3 12 20 22 16 LAND (KM) 1351 1412 1498 1569 1645 1717 1745 1739 1714 1680 1635 1608 1598 1629 1610 1630 1678 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.4 19.7 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 118.1 119.5 120.7 121.8 123.6 124.8 125.5 126.1 126.6 127.3 128.1 129.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 9 6 5 5 6 7 9 9 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 14 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 24. 21. 17. 11. 6. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -16. -17. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -22. -29. -35. -41. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 116.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 07/20/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 14.5% 12.6% 9.7% 0.0% 13.2% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.7% 4.4% 3.3% 0.0% 4.5% 3.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 07/20/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##