* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 45 44 44 44 43 41 37 33 30 37 44 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 45 44 44 44 43 41 37 33 30 37 44 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 47 47 45 45 44 43 39 36 34 33 35 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 18 20 11 12 15 11 15 19 26 23 17 13 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -4 -1 -1 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 36 32 56 58 76 72 46 36 27 38 56 72 183 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.6 23.1 18.9 19.0 20.4 20.3 19.2 18.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 101 100 98 97 97 95 92 76 76 81 81 77 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 46 45 46 42 39 38 39 43 47 51 47 40 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 20 18 17 17 17 16 14 11 8 6 10 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 52 36 34 21 8 -25 -41 -71 -102 -116 -103 -94 -41 -44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -29 -9 -3 -11 15 10 8 -1 11 -20 0 0 -14 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -3 0 4 17 21 30 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1729 1676 1624 1554 1486 1319 1095 871 674 532 531 685 938 1178 1395 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.2 34.4 34.7 35.0 36.0 37.6 39.4 41.3 43.2 44.8 45.6 45.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.2 41.9 42.6 43.5 44.4 46.1 47.8 49.0 49.1 48.4 46.7 44.1 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -19. -21. -21. -18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -22. -26. -29. -24. -23. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -8. -1. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.0 41.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.7% 7.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 3.3% 2.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/20/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 45 44 44 44 43 41 37 33 30 37 44 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 42 42 42 41 39 35 31 28 35 42 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 39 39 39 38 36 32 28 25 32 39 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 33 33 32 30 26 22 19 26 33 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT