* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 07/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 28 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 16 19 23 24 20 16 11 14 16 17 25 33 42 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 8 9 8 9 16 19 15 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 310 302 286 290 293 271 267 272 251 256 260 236 217 224 227 233 220 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.0 25.4 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.2 21.5 21.2 20.8 21.2 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 141 137 134 122 115 109 104 102 101 94 77 74 69 73 68 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.3 -50.0 -49.9 -50.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 69 69 69 67 67 67 66 65 62 59 53 48 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 13 14 14 12 11 9 8 6 6 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 16 22 29 24 18 14 18 7 16 4 -7 -39 -40 -49 -36 200 MB DIV 56 59 75 84 74 119 69 67 45 -3 -24 2 3 3 -22 6 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -5 6 4 1 2 -1 -1 0 1 6 14 19 12 LAND (KM) 1379 1456 1537 1607 1666 1753 1788 1771 1753 1703 1627 1543 1480 1474 1395 1357 1328 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.8 18.1 19.8 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.5 120.8 121.9 123.0 124.7 125.7 126.2 126.4 126.6 126.9 127.4 128.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 10 7 5 3 3 6 8 10 10 11 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 18. 14. 8. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -15. -20. -22. -28. -33. -40. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 118.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 07/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.3% 10.8% 7.9% 0.0% 11.2% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.7% 4.1% 2.9% 0.1% 3.9% 3.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 07/20/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##