* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 43 43 41 39 37 35 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 43 43 41 39 37 35 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 44 43 42 41 39 36 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 21 20 12 16 12 13 11 11 22 17 4 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -4 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 38 63 62 69 80 90 53 34 21 31 360 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.7 25.9 19.3 17.8 18.4 19.2 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 100 99 98 98 98 103 113 77 73 75 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 45 44 39 38 38 42 46 53 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 18 18 17 17 15 14 12 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 39 33 23 12 -3 -31 -51 -89 -109 -105 -94 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -7 -9 -15 -13 -6 10 2 -4 1 15 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 -2 3 -1 -4 4 11 21 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1652 1591 1531 1454 1378 1167 957 753 519 442 558 788 1086 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.6 34.8 35.2 35.6 37.0 38.6 40.3 42.6 44.4 45.7 46.7 47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.0 43.8 44.7 45.6 47.5 48.9 49.8 49.8 48.4 45.8 42.3 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -18. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -26. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.3 42.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.5% 7.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.1% 2.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 44 43 43 43 41 39 37 35 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 42 42 42 40 38 36 34 32 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 40 40 38 36 34 32 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 34 32 30 28 26 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT