* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 07/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 19 19 20 22 17 14 19 21 29 36 37 38 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 3 3 1 8 10 12 14 17 12 10 6 3 2 SHEAR DIR 307 297 292 295 283 268 277 261 258 239 234 219 229 222 240 235 246 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.7 24.4 23.8 22.2 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 138 130 123 119 113 108 105 100 84 74 73 72 75 75 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -52.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 69 70 71 70 71 70 70 69 67 63 60 56 50 44 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 15 21 17 8 4 -3 4 7 13 3 -13 -34 -52 -41 -34 200 MB DIV 45 51 49 65 92 102 59 51 37 12 2 -6 2 10 -6 -7 -1 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 0 8 6 0 1 -1 0 0 3 11 16 15 15 LAND (KM) 1513 1600 1673 1724 1763 1792 1777 1755 1727 1673 1615 1573 1615 1577 1575 1605 1632 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.6 19.0 20.8 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.6 121.0 122.1 123.1 124.0 125.2 125.8 126.2 126.6 127.0 127.6 128.5 129.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 10 9 6 4 4 5 7 9 11 10 10 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 17. 13. 8. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -33. -39. -44. -49. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 119.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 07/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 11.1% 9.9% 6.9% 0.0% 10.3% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.9% 3.3% 2.3% 0.0% 3.5% 2.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 07/20/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##