* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 44 42 39 35 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 44 42 39 35 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 44 43 42 40 36 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 11 16 17 16 11 16 21 19 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 67 68 76 89 71 56 39 35 41 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 25.6 24.9 19.5 16.5 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 99 99 99 99 111 104 78 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 44 42 41 40 39 42 48 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 16 14 13 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 34 22 10 3 -26 -46 -89 -92 -93 -72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -18 -12 -15 2 13 0 -8 17 -7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 -1 -2 1 0 -3 4 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1582 1523 1466 1363 1263 1068 846 571 435 425 582 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.8 35.0 35.6 36.2 37.6 39.4 41.8 43.4 45.4 47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.3 44.1 44.9 46.0 47.1 48.7 49.9 50.7 50.0 47.8 44.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 10 10 11 10 10 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -21. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.5 43.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.7% 7.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.2% 2.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 44 43 44 42 39 35 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 42 43 41 38 34 31 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 41 39 36 32 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 35 33 30 26 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT