* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 07/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 27 26 23 18 21 20 27 28 35 38 40 36 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 1 0 2 6 6 12 12 17 18 12 6 4 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 299 288 286 277 271 249 249 258 241 233 229 214 209 206 205 211 205 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.5 24.9 24.5 24.2 23.5 22.0 21.1 20.8 21.3 20.8 20.2 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 133 126 116 110 105 103 97 82 73 69 74 69 61 60 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -50.3 -49.6 -49.6 -50.0 -50.9 -52.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 72 72 72 71 72 69 64 58 54 50 46 42 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 8 7 5 5 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 10 0 -5 -1 -15 -9 -2 8 -6 -14 -34 -49 -34 -41 -65 200 MB DIV 64 66 80 117 126 90 53 31 13 -1 5 2 0 7 6 -2 13 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 2 5 0 -2 0 0 3 5 19 29 38 29 12 0 LAND (KM) 1555 1623 1667 1703 1706 1686 1662 1650 1604 1542 1494 1502 1435 1402 1374 1299 1174 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.2 19.7 21.4 23.3 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.4 122.4 123.4 124.2 125.1 125.6 126.2 126.7 127.3 128.0 129.2 130.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 6 5 5 7 8 10 11 10 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 15. 10. 6. 1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -15. -20. -26. -30. -36. -40. -47. -53. -56. -60. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 120.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 07/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 07/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##