* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 50 58 64 71 76 82 86 92 94 95 101 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 50 58 64 71 76 82 86 92 94 95 101 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 32 36 42 50 58 68 77 82 85 87 87 87 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 8 3 3 2 6 7 7 5 5 4 1 6 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 93 85 78 93 98 11 284 331 60 44 41 59 117 218 205 232 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.5 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 132 137 139 137 145 157 163 160 159 149 142 143 146 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 63 65 69 70 72 72 74 68 68 66 65 65 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 10 9 11 10 11 11 10 10 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -2 0 10 20 29 40 41 38 28 19 25 27 38 42 51 200 MB DIV -35 -41 -42 -34 -17 3 12 -20 -4 10 28 12 12 17 24 46 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -7 -4 -7 0 1 1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1578 1596 1589 1545 1478 1289 1072 846 678 538 508 530 318 107 28 309 272 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.4 10.7 10.1 9.6 9.5 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 38.8 39.0 39.4 40.0 41.6 43.6 45.9 48.2 50.6 52.7 54.9 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 7 9 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 22 29 24 19 33 58 58 41 41 35 26 19 27 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 35. 45. 53. 59. 65. 67. 67. 68. 68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 33. 39. 46. 51. 57. 61. 67. 69. 70. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 38.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 15.8% 23.6% 11.2% 1.7% 5.0% 2.2% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.5% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 2.0% 7.5% 8.7% 3.8% 0.6% 2.0% 5.0% 2.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 42 50 58 64 71 76 82 86 92 94 95 101 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 40 48 56 62 69 74 80 84 90 92 93 99 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 35 43 51 57 64 69 75 79 85 87 88 94 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 34 42 48 55 60 66 70 76 78 79 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT