* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 38 46 54 61 68 74 82 87 93 94 92 95 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 38 46 54 61 68 74 82 87 93 94 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 43 50 59 67 73 77 83 85 84 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 5 3 4 8 8 9 14 7 4 2 2 9 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 2 -4 -6 -3 -7 -1 -2 2 4 4 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 104 73 88 102 15 14 295 15 38 32 62 42 244 277 228 237 250 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.8 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.7 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 130 135 140 136 141 149 161 161 159 148 140 147 151 162 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 66 68 69 71 73 75 72 70 66 66 62 60 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 12 13 15 15 16 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 2 17 25 23 35 50 50 46 24 30 29 42 38 34 7 200 MB DIV -37 -31 -28 -6 12 -6 -8 -11 30 33 28 16 52 54 51 14 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -7 -7 -6 -5 1 1 5 3 6 11 LAND (KM) 1600 1598 1570 1512 1426 1209 971 767 581 540 556 331 67 52 230 27 28 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.5 11.3 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.8 10.4 10.9 11.8 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 38.9 39.2 39.7 40.5 42.5 44.9 47.4 50.0 52.4 54.5 56.7 59.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 7 9 11 13 12 12 11 12 12 12 15 17 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 20 25 31 18 22 45 58 44 40 35 26 27 50 88 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 35. 45. 53. 59. 63. 66. 65. 66. 65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 4. 3. 3. 1. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 21. 29. 36. 43. 49. 57. 62. 68. 69. 67. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 38.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.4% 10.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 10.2% 12.4% 5.9% 1.0% 4.2% 2.3% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 1.1% 8.7% 8.1% 4.4% 0.3% 1.5% 4.9% 3.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 32 38 46 54 61 68 74 82 87 93 94 92 90 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 31 37 45 53 60 67 73 81 86 92 93 91 89 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 41 49 56 63 69 77 82 88 89 87 85 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 40 47 54 60 68 73 79 80 78 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT