* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042023 07/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 29 27 28 29 28 27 29 34 38 38 46 42 42 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 5 7 12 15 18 16 16 20 13 10 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 279 267 260 243 238 248 253 244 238 229 222 224 214 218 219 210 197 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.6 22.7 21.8 21.1 20.8 20.4 20.4 20.2 19.4 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 127 118 110 104 101 96 87 78 71 68 64 64 61 59 59 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -50.8 -51.6 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 74 71 70 69 69 69 65 60 56 53 49 42 37 33 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -12 -15 -8 -10 -2 -2 -4 -20 -33 -42 -43 -37 -34 -56 -60 200 MB DIV 63 83 89 127 89 55 31 0 -12 7 0 18 3 0 7 7 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 2 1 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 2 7 14 18 17 5 -3 -13 LAND (KM) 1543 1555 1567 1571 1572 1572 1581 1572 1525 1477 1451 1417 1333 1235 1136 1006 877 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.6 21.7 22.9 24.1 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.5 123.4 124.1 124.8 125.9 126.8 127.5 127.8 128.0 128.4 129.0 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. -34. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -21. -30. -38. -44. -49. -54. -59. -65. -72. -78. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 121.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042023 FOUR 07/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042023 FOUR 07/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##