* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 53 62 69 77 83 87 91 92 96 100 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 53 62 69 77 83 87 91 92 96 100 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 39 46 54 63 72 78 83 85 87 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 1 5 8 9 3 6 4 4 4 9 9 10 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 1 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 0 0 1 1 2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 61 83 117 272 342 275 301 49 360 1 333 230 271 241 264 224 253 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.7 28.1 28.6 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 141 145 143 145 152 154 152 151 150 143 134 139 147 151 154 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 61 64 66 65 64 68 70 73 72 71 71 72 71 71 69 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 9 17 18 14 28 42 47 42 34 41 45 46 64 82 69 200 MB DIV -32 -30 -8 -2 -14 -11 -11 12 7 25 21 36 17 36 42 54 1 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -4 -6 -8 -2 2 1 3 6 9 14 LAND (KM) 1570 1539 1487 1402 1292 1057 821 617 511 426 199 55 109 195 186 284 210 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.2 39.6 40.1 40.9 42.0 44.5 47.5 50.4 53.6 56.4 59.1 61.6 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 7 10 11 13 15 15 15 13 13 12 12 13 15 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 39 42 28 23 36 50 33 37 26 15 8 25 36 54 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 26. 35. 45. 53. 59. 64. 66. 66. 67. 67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 28. 37. 44. 52. 58. 62. 66. 67. 71. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 39.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 14.9% 10.2% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 14.1% 14.5% 6.3% 1.6% 7.1% 4.1% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4% Consensus: 2.4% 10.1% 8.7% 4.4% 0.6% 2.5% 5.5% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/21/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 53 62 69 77 83 87 91 92 96 100 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 43 51 60 67 75 81 85 89 90 94 98 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 39 47 56 63 71 77 81 85 86 90 94 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 39 48 55 63 69 73 77 78 82 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT