* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 52 53 47 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 52 53 47 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 51 52 50 43 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 14 12 18 21 25 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 78 51 18 354 347 350 337 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.7 26.3 25.9 26.5 18.9 17.0 16.8 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 103 117 114 119 77 74 73 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 42 43 48 53 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 15 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -23 -31 -39 -58 -82 -103 -77 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 28 17 13 3 21 -14 19 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 -3 -1 2 10 13 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1156 1039 925 786 648 448 431 701 984 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.8 38.6 39.9 41.1 43.3 45.6 48.0 49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 49.2 50.2 50.4 50.6 49.9 47.6 43.3 39.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 13 11 13 17 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. -3. -9. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.9 48.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.0% 9.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 4.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.1% 4.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/22/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/22/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 52 52 53 47 41 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 51 52 46 40 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 48 42 36 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 35 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT