* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/22/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 31 37 45 55 63 70 77 83 87 90 90 93 100 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 31 37 45 55 63 70 77 83 87 90 90 93 100 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 47 56 66 75 82 85 86 87 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 5 6 9 3 7 4 5 4 13 8 8 9 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 1 1 0 2 3 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 116 187 351 344 284 296 344 350 13 324 299 301 286 285 217 246 229 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.1 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.3 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 142 142 141 144 145 141 149 149 144 129 137 141 146 151 147 151 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 60 59 64 65 68 68 70 70 71 70 71 71 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 14 20 23 18 19 32 44 48 51 50 61 45 50 61 73 59 46 200 MB DIV -8 10 -10 -24 -19 -11 19 18 31 3 8 33 76 54 36 -7 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -8 -8 -2 1 0 3 8 7 9 7 LAND (KM) 1516 1453 1354 1244 1133 861 667 487 238 33 60 98 62 59 238 330 283 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.1 11.7 11.4 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.2 11.5 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.2 41.0 42.1 43.4 44.8 48.3 51.8 55.4 58.6 61.6 64.3 66.6 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 12 13 15 17 18 16 15 14 12 11 11 13 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 42 30 22 21 30 37 33 28 15 5 19 16 30 51 44 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 35. 44. 52. 57. 62. 65. 65. 66. 66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 12. 20. 30. 38. 45. 52. 58. 62. 65. 65. 68. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 40.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/22/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 14.4% 9.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 7.6% 7.3% 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 2.6% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3.1% Consensus: 2.1% 7.4% 5.9% 2.5% 0.1% 0.6% 5.1% 4.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/22/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/22/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 31 37 45 55 63 70 77 83 87 90 90 93 100 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 36 44 54 62 69 76 82 86 89 89 92 99 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 39 49 57 64 71 77 81 84 84 87 94 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 42 50 57 64 70 74 77 77 80 87 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT