* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 52 51 47 40 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 52 51 47 40 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 51 49 45 39 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 12 16 20 23 21 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -3 -4 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 20 7 353 352 359 358 334 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 26.1 22.7 20.4 19.9 19.4 18.8 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 115 91 82 80 79 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -52.7 -52.2 -50.6 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 42 43 46 54 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 16 15 13 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -46 -60 -85 -99 -111 -101 -72 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 23 -5 5 14 -16 17 5 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 3 8 7 10 15 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 942 818 695 593 510 545 769 1074 1402 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.5 39.7 40.8 42.0 43.2 45.3 46.9 48.0 48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.9 50.0 49.4 48.8 46.2 42.5 38.3 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. -17. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 38.5 49.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.3% 9.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.0% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 52 51 47 40 33 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 50 49 45 38 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 46 42 35 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 35 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT