* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 61 58 50 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 61 58 50 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 61 56 48 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 13 15 17 22 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 12 8 359 360 5 12 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 23.5 20.7 21.1 20.2 18.8 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 96 83 84 81 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.4 -51.7 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 41 42 43 49 55 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -63 -84 -102 -107 -111 -98 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 -11 6 17 6 -6 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 2 5 5 6 17 9 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 830 708 592 516 480 627 915 1256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 40.7 41.9 43.2 44.5 46.2 47.3 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.9 49.7 48.7 47.7 44.6 40.5 35.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 15 14 14 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -2. -10. -19. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.5 50.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 565.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 62 61 58 50 41 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 55 47 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 52 44 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 39 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT