* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 36 43 49 55 59 63 66 67 70 71 77 86 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 36 43 49 55 59 63 66 67 70 71 77 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 38 43 49 55 61 65 68 71 75 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 11 12 10 14 8 8 12 13 15 17 14 14 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -3 -5 0 -5 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 2 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 70 242 293 329 351 332 357 323 333 283 311 287 313 281 302 288 297 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 149 146 148 148 148 153 144 140 138 136 141 145 145 149 157 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 10 7 10 8 10 8 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 63 64 70 68 71 68 72 71 74 72 74 70 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 24 24 28 33 41 36 49 44 46 64 75 81 58 55 36 200 MB DIV -24 -15 -21 -25 -21 18 12 18 -17 2 25 44 38 39 24 14 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -8 -10 -4 0 0 2 0 6 2 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 1252 1136 1014 896 775 618 409 169 107 167 121 79 187 308 454 173 -149 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.3 45.8 47.4 49.1 52.6 56.1 59.5 62.7 65.6 68.3 70.7 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 16 17 18 17 17 15 14 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 23 28 36 35 33 25 14 22 18 23 23 28 33 24 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 26. 35. 44. 52. 57. 62. 64. 64. 66. 66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 41. 43. 45. 46. 52. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 43.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 15.3% 10.3% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 18.7% 13.1% 3.7% 1.6% 6.7% 9.5% 32.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 14.3% Consensus: 2.2% 12.7% 8.1% 3.5% 0.5% 2.4% 7.5% 15.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 31 36 43 49 55 59 63 66 67 70 71 77 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 42 48 54 58 62 65 66 69 70 76 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 38 44 50 54 58 61 62 65 66 72 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 36 42 46 50 53 54 57 58 64 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT