* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 52 59 62 64 66 68 70 71 76 85 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 52 59 62 64 66 68 70 71 76 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 47 55 62 66 69 70 73 77 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 10 11 9 15 7 11 5 15 14 19 13 20 12 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 -2 -4 0 -2 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 231 296 339 354 341 340 10 336 292 299 288 303 298 301 274 282 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 149 149 149 151 153 147 150 145 141 142 142 145 146 149 156 152 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 8 8 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 66 67 70 70 71 70 70 72 75 71 71 72 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 25 22 29 32 42 37 39 53 39 53 53 70 57 50 39 35 200 MB DIV -12 -19 -26 -21 2 28 29 21 25 -1 10 44 33 1 12 11 31 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 -9 -4 -2 2 0 4 1 1 0 -1 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1119 1001 883 772 672 575 325 112 153 232 199 186 348 272 333 44 -53 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.2 45.6 47.1 48.7 50.3 53.8 57.1 60.3 63.2 65.9 68.6 71.3 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 14 13 15 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 30 37 45 35 31 22 15 24 31 45 60 51 54 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 35. 44. 52. 57. 61. 64. 63. 64. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 27. 34. 37. 39. 41. 43. 45. 46. 51. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 44.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 16.7% 11.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 13.9% 9.0% 2.5% 1.0% 4.2% 6.3% 29.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 2.9% Consensus: 2.1% 12.7% 7.3% 3.4% 0.3% 1.6% 6.7% 10.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/23/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 52 59 62 64 66 68 70 71 76 50 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 45 51 58 61 63 65 67 69 70 75 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 40 46 53 56 58 60 62 64 65 70 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 38 45 48 50 52 54 56 57 62 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT