* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 46 50 51 51 53 53 54 55 59 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 46 50 51 51 53 53 54 55 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 40 44 47 49 51 51 53 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 11 10 14 18 13 15 14 17 21 24 26 22 22 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -3 -1 -5 -4 -4 -1 1 -2 -3 -5 -1 -5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 286 341 1 346 337 353 339 325 289 305 294 307 294 302 286 275 268 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 155 152 154 149 149 147 144 146 146 144 151 154 157 172 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 7 9 8 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 65 68 68 70 73 72 73 69 71 71 74 72 72 69 72 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 33 35 38 38 31 39 36 34 46 44 68 41 24 25 12 200 MB DIV -25 -39 -14 8 29 26 26 34 39 9 24 21 36 -6 5 9 34 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -6 -7 -9 -9 -2 2 1 4 3 7 -2 -6 0 -11 0 LAND (KM) 974 853 741 634 574 553 262 117 230 330 257 277 228 174 234 92 -10 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.3 12.1 12.7 13.6 14.4 15.3 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.9 48.4 49.9 51.5 54.8 57.9 60.9 63.8 66.6 69.3 72.3 75.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 26 34 44 48 42 35 30 20 19 32 53 52 63 98 39 32 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 26. 36. 44. 52. 57. 61. 63. 62. 63. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -20. -24. -27. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 26. 26. 28. 28. 29. 30. 34. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 45.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 15.7% 10.5% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 15.3% 8.5% 2.6% 1.4% 6.4% 7.3% 34.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 9.5% Consensus: 1.8% 12.7% 6.8% 3.2% 0.5% 2.2% 6.7% 14.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/23/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 46 50 51 51 53 53 54 55 59 58 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 39 45 49 50 50 52 52 53 54 58 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 41 45 46 46 48 48 49 50 54 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 33 37 38 38 40 40 41 42 46 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT