* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/24/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 42 43 40 38 38 39 40 41 44 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 42 43 40 38 38 39 40 41 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 33 34 34 33 33 33 33 34 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 17 14 11 21 16 24 24 33 27 29 23 28 26 22 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 -6 -1 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 305 308 323 338 333 319 288 282 286 303 294 294 281 289 277 307 291 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.3 29.0 29.5 29.7 30.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 149 154 151 146 142 144 140 141 143 154 162 166 174 160 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 12 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 69 66 65 66 66 69 69 70 69 70 66 70 68 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 24 30 22 21 29 31 33 26 53 43 33 -2 14 -22 -29 200 MB DIV 20 23 39 48 28 14 33 4 23 -12 13 5 0 -4 2 21 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -8 -8 -3 0 -2 1 0 0 -9 1 -8 -10 -2 0 LAND (KM) 784 717 679 671 514 124 47 344 287 181 122 41 144 320 187 -93 -51 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.5 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.4 49.8 51.5 53.2 54.8 58.3 61.5 64.7 67.7 70.6 73.5 76.6 79.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 17 17 16 17 16 16 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 39 38 46 40 25 30 49 44 33 65 50 60 72 13 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 15. 25. 33. 41. 48. 52. 56. 58. 57. 58. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -19. -27. -31. -35. -37. -37. -39. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 17. 18. 15. 13. 13. 14. 15. 16. 19. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 48.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/24/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 16.9% 11.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 40.5% 24.6% 12.6% 9.5% 18.0% 14.4% 39.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 11.8% Consensus: 3.3% 22.4% 12.5% 6.5% 3.2% 6.2% 9.3% 17.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/24/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/24/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 35 40 42 43 40 38 38 39 40 41 36 30 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 39 41 42 39 37 37 38 39 40 35 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 37 38 35 33 33 34 35 36 31 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 29 30 27 25 25 26 27 28 23 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT