* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 43 44 45 42 39 40 42 44 45 50 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 38 42 44 45 41 39 39 41 42 39 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 34 34 33 32 31 32 33 35 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 15 11 15 16 20 24 29 31 28 25 22 21 21 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -5 0 0 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 306 323 336 335 320 307 278 291 292 301 289 293 278 285 286 304 301 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 30.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 154 151 148 145 142 140 141 145 154 159 164 166 173 164 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 66 65 64 65 67 71 67 71 70 71 70 71 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 31 23 23 26 23 36 42 30 60 35 19 6 0 -22 -12 200 MB DIV 22 49 51 30 31 22 25 11 25 10 3 2 20 12 37 40 42 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -7 -6 -5 0 1 0 1 0 -2 -8 -3 -11 -12 1 -7 LAND (KM) 707 676 665 535 348 9 189 304 239 103 117 22 353 288 -2 -83 -103 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.4 13.4 14.3 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.8 51.3 52.9 54.6 56.3 59.6 62.9 66.1 69.1 72.1 75.2 78.5 81.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 15 16 15 15 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 37 45 46 28 33 36 58 32 52 58 52 61 42 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 15. 24. 33. 41. 47. 51. 55. 57. 56. 57. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -12. -22. -29. -33. -35. -36. -35. -35. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 18. 19. 20. 17. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 25. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 49.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.84 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.4% 10.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 15.0% 6.2% 1.8% 1.0% 3.8% 8.8% 15.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 9.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 2.7% Consensus: 1.8% 13.3% 5.9% 2.7% 0.4% 1.5% 7.0% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/24/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 38 42 44 45 41 39 39 41 42 39 32 28 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 36 40 42 43 39 37 37 39 40 37 30 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 36 38 39 35 33 33 35 36 33 26 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 28 30 31 27 25 25 27 28 25 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT