* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 32 36 39 41 41 43 49 55 61 65 72 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 32 36 39 41 41 43 49 35 30 34 41 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 30 30 30 32 28 27 33 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 18 21 15 26 23 26 16 17 10 4 5 6 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -4 0 0 -6 -4 0 -1 -2 1 -1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 313 326 332 317 317 277 290 298 297 280 272 240 246 119 88 71 57 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.3 28.5 28.9 28.8 30.2 30.5 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 158 156 153 148 143 146 146 152 143 146 152 151 173 173 172 169 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 7 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 69 70 69 70 73 71 71 72 74 72 72 72 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 28 29 24 44 39 50 51 70 67 48 38 21 16 9 10 200 MB DIV 42 59 41 18 2 12 12 29 10 12 23 10 13 37 49 45 70 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -2 -8 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 2 1 7 0 1 LAND (KM) 641 489 293 106 86 265 351 256 297 323 361 85 -174 -51 93 321 391 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.0 55.1 56.9 58.7 60.4 63.7 66.9 70.0 73.0 76.0 79.1 82.4 85.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 16 16 17 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 42 46 44 35 22 20 33 52 99 37 42 26 12 47 36 26 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 15. 24. 33. 41. 48. 53. 58. 61. 61. 62. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -1. -7. -14. -21. -25. -25. -25. -22. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 18. 24. 30. 36. 40. 47. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 53.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.87 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.1% 8.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.5% 3.5% 12.3% 33.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 10.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 3.2% Consensus: 1.6% 10.7% 4.4% 2.1% 0.2% 1.5% 7.5% 12.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/24/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 28 32 36 39 41 41 43 49 35 30 34 41 45 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 30 34 37 39 39 41 47 33 28 32 39 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 27 31 34 36 36 38 44 30 25 29 36 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 28 30 30 32 38 24 19 23 30 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT