* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/24/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 43 46 48 52 59 66 71 74 79 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 43 46 48 52 51 35 30 36 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 36 39 44 31 28 36 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 14 16 12 18 26 17 19 11 9 4 4 7 5 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -5 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 334 329 310 320 313 280 316 295 304 273 265 231 113 95 97 40 29 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.2 28.8 29.0 29.6 30.7 30.6 30.2 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 151 146 146 143 145 144 147 141 151 154 164 173 172 172 172 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 9 8 9 7 9 8 9 8 9 7 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 72 71 74 75 75 69 74 72 74 73 73 74 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 33 33 49 44 45 59 53 83 62 40 39 26 19 15 14 200 MB DIV 38 39 22 7 -7 11 47 50 8 39 27 44 32 56 60 60 49 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 0 3 2 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 459 241 105 81 161 300 226 195 343 349 330 -19 -103 -12 104 297 259 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 57.6 59.4 61.1 62.7 65.8 68.7 71.4 74.2 77.0 80.1 83.4 86.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 17 16 16 15 14 13 13 15 16 16 16 14 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 38 27 18 17 25 38 48 61 31 57 28 6 45 35 26 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 15. 24. 33. 41. 49. 54. 58. 61. 61. 62. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -5. -10. -14. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 27. 34. 41. 46. 49. 54. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 55.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/24/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 16.6% 11.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 20.5% 9.9% 3.4% 2.3% 11.9% 14.7% 40.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 21.6% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 11.2% Consensus: 2.7% 19.5% 8.2% 3.7% 0.8% 4.5% 8.9% 17.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/24/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/24/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 43 46 48 52 51 35 30 36 41 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 32 36 41 44 46 50 49 33 28 34 39 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 32 37 40 42 46 45 29 24 30 35 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 29 32 34 38 37 21 16 22 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT