* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 51 57 64 68 72 75 79 80 83 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 51 57 64 68 63 39 31 28 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 40 45 52 62 70 39 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 4 7 17 12 10 5 1 9 11 12 9 11 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 0 -1 3 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 -5 -2 -5 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 293 316 344 268 308 329 321 38 95 92 78 83 69 59 13 15 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.3 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 150 145 140 141 137 138 139 141 148 148 149 157 171 171 171 171 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 6 8 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 71 74 74 72 74 77 77 77 75 79 80 78 79 78 80 81 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 53 56 62 59 67 72 84 90 66 55 63 55 53 37 35 200 MB DIV 43 31 -7 -10 18 15 49 41 61 66 53 27 44 53 99 67 78 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 180 112 140 171 205 123 55 175 287 454 249 -9 -166 -40 -60 -62 1 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 60.9 62.7 64.3 65.7 68.5 71.1 73.5 75.9 78.3 81.0 83.6 85.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 20 17 15 14 13 12 12 11 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 18 14 14 23 16 21 22 24 30 31 30 14 45 40 36 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 26 CX,CY: -25/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 802 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 34. 42. 50. 55. 59. 62. 62. 64. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 26. 32. 39. 43. 47. 50. 54. 55. 58. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 58.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 17.2% 11.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 24.7% 13.4% 5.4% 3.3% 9.7% 13.3% 41.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 35.6% Consensus: 2.2% 16.3% 8.7% 4.4% 1.1% 3.4% 8.6% 25.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 51 57 64 68 63 39 31 28 27 30 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 42 49 55 62 66 61 37 29 26 25 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 38 45 51 58 62 57 33 25 22 21 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 37 43 50 54 49 25 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT