* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952023 07/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 38 45 50 57 62 67 70 73 74 77 81 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 38 45 50 57 41 38 41 44 45 48 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 33 38 44 35 35 40 44 48 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 15 20 13 13 4 3 5 9 14 12 12 14 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 0 2 -5 -5 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -2 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 297 294 257 281 301 311 304 256 236 113 81 90 73 70 43 24 23 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.4 28.8 30.2 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.4 31.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 139 137 136 133 138 145 150 144 150 172 168 166 172 171 172 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 8 6 7 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 77 76 77 76 76 78 77 76 78 76 79 78 79 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 63 66 61 65 71 70 70 52 53 41 35 22 18 30 34 200 MB DIV 4 0 24 27 26 41 31 34 43 44 37 54 42 96 50 90 110 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -4 -5 1 -2 0 -3 -1 3 0 3 2 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 143 172 205 190 117 60 229 362 398 123 -176 43 115 163 289 207 178 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.4 64.1 65.7 67.2 68.8 71.6 74.3 76.9 79.6 82.4 85.3 88.0 90.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 15 15 13 13 13 14 14 14 12 11 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 20 21 16 20 21 27 34 17 35 39 35 25 25 33 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 24. 33. 42. 49. 55. 60. 63. 63. 65. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 20. 25. 32. 37. 42. 45. 48. 49. 52. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 62.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952023 INVEST 07/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.74 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 14.9% 10.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 6.7% 2.8% 0.9% 0.4% 3.3% 4.4% 37.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 7.6% Consensus: 1.4% 8.2% 4.4% 2.5% 0.1% 1.2% 5.3% 15.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952023 INVEST 07/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952023 INVEST 07/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 29 33 38 45 50 57 41 38 41 44 45 48 52 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 32 37 44 49 56 40 37 40 43 44 47 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 33 40 45 52 36 33 36 39 40 43 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 32 37 44 28 25 28 31 32 35 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT