* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 29 34 38 44 48 50 55 57 57 69 70 71 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 29 34 38 44 48 50 55 57 57 69 70 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 22 23 25 26 28 29 32 34 38 47 55 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 19 21 14 15 13 16 12 13 11 9 8 18 19 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 1 1 -1 2 -1 0 -3 -2 0 3 0 -1 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 45 25 16 20 19 336 309 267 260 245 260 282 308 339 5 357 353 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.6 28.0 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.3 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 134 139 135 133 138 143 138 138 132 128 125 126 116 107 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 65 64 67 64 60 55 55 55 57 61 63 61 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 9 18 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 3 -6 -17 -17 -26 -26 -46 -50 -65 -80 -76 -47 -81 -86 -68 200 MB DIV 45 53 54 34 26 3 20 26 26 10 23 33 33 43 33 -3 36 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 1 4 4 12 19 15 6 13 13 14 28 10 4 1 LAND (KM) 1760 1663 1599 1583 1590 1477 1390 1333 1343 1405 1521 1712 1605 1458 1404 1382 1320 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.2 19.0 21.1 23.0 24.8 26.5 28.3 30.3 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 40.3 41.9 43.4 44.6 47.0 49.0 50.3 51.3 52.0 52.4 52.1 50.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 11 10 9 10 10 13 12 9 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 14 17 45 37 18 21 33 19 16 11 7 2 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 33. 36. 37. 37. 36. 34. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -8. 4. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 18. 24. 28. 30. 35. 37. 37. 49. 50. 51. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 38.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.7% 3.8% 6.3% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/28/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 27 29 34 38 44 48 50 55 57 57 69 70 71 73 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 26 31 35 41 45 47 52 54 54 66 67 68 70 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 29 35 39 41 46 48 48 60 61 62 64 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT