* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 32 38 43 48 48 53 54 58 67 68 78 90 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 32 38 43 48 48 53 54 58 67 68 78 90 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 24 26 27 27 29 32 36 43 47 55 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 20 14 11 15 14 21 15 17 13 13 10 22 8 18 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 2 0 0 1 -4 0 0 0 2 2 0 -3 5 8 SHEAR DIR 32 22 20 21 357 344 283 265 251 260 253 304 331 356 347 195 226 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.6 27.0 27.1 25.2 25.8 24.4 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 136 137 134 133 139 143 140 133 132 125 128 109 115 105 88 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 63 64 65 63 58 57 59 57 62 64 64 55 45 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 11 13 12 14 20 20 26 35 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 -5 -18 -17 -22 -27 -39 -39 -59 -65 -65 -12 -24 -39 -80 -139 200 MB DIV 44 54 36 32 18 -4 28 20 43 5 41 17 34 29 51 36 26 700-850 TADV -2 -3 4 2 3 6 14 19 9 9 14 18 30 30 10 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 1664 1596 1569 1571 1580 1430 1342 1279 1295 1377 1542 1680 1438 1230 1051 952 1166 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.7 17.6 19.4 21.5 23.4 25.3 27.2 29.3 31.5 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.1 41.6 43.0 44.2 45.4 47.7 49.6 51.1 52.3 53.2 53.5 52.9 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 14 12 11 11 11 10 12 16 17 18 23 25 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 32 45 32 15 25 30 18 10 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 36. 36. 34. 32. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -0. -2. -1. 7. 7. 14. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 18. 23. 28. 28. 33. 34. 38. 47. 48. 58. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 40.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.9% 3.9% 1.5% 1.0% 4.9% 6.2% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 1.7% 2.3% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/29/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 28 32 38 43 48 48 53 54 58 67 68 78 90 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 29 35 40 45 45 50 51 55 64 65 75 87 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 30 35 40 40 45 46 50 59 60 70 82 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT