* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 27 33 38 42 46 47 51 58 60 61 60 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 27 33 38 42 46 47 51 58 60 61 60 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 26 27 29 34 38 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 14 16 13 18 11 17 13 16 11 12 12 15 15 19 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 2 1 1 0 3 2 6 2 0 -1 -3 -10 -2 SHEAR DIR 29 321 319 321 301 275 258 242 259 268 297 299 354 355 331 325 257 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.5 25.0 25.8 25.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 137 140 141 142 143 144 140 138 139 137 133 107 114 109 94 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.3 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 6 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 62 61 60 56 54 51 52 52 61 67 65 55 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 9 10 14 15 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 -3 -13 -19 -32 -43 -35 -43 -43 -67 -50 -41 -40 -14 -21 -18 200 MB DIV 9 -1 -10 14 15 22 19 3 32 2 20 25 49 20 43 11 13 700-850 TADV 10 10 7 11 14 19 14 3 3 7 2 30 5 37 -7 11 2 LAND (KM) 1561 1459 1384 1341 1290 1244 1240 1249 1274 1305 1414 1667 1486 1184 978 884 930 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.1 22.7 24.1 25.2 26.2 27.1 28.5 30.7 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.6 47.0 48.2 49.2 50.0 51.1 52.0 52.8 53.5 54.2 54.5 53.6 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 12 11 8 7 6 6 6 9 13 17 17 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 19 17 25 32 29 25 21 16 14 14 8 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 20 CX,CY: -14/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 32. 32. 30. 29. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -6. 1. 1. -1. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 27. 31. 39. 40. 41. 40. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.6 45.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 2.5% 2.9% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/29/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 27 33 38 42 46 47 51 58 60 61 60 65 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 26 32 37 41 45 46 50 57 59 60 59 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 22 28 33 37 41 42 46 53 55 56 55 60 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT