* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 33 44 54 61 63 63 64 67 69 70 71 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 33 44 54 61 63 63 64 67 69 70 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 34 37 41 42 44 45 47 49 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 7 10 7 13 17 12 19 20 23 13 3 5 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 -1 -3 -2 1 1 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 120 124 123 114 121 68 30 38 11 14 356 17 4 22 248 237 223 SST (C) 30.4 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.7 30.5 30.1 30.5 30.0 29.4 28.9 28.0 26.3 25.7 25.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 167 167 167 169 172 171 167 171 166 160 155 147 130 124 125 121 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 9 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 75 75 79 79 78 74 72 70 64 59 54 51 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 35 16 8 12 21 13 10 13 23 20 14 42 40 38 54 75 200 MB DIV 76 88 62 53 53 57 59 12 37 21 -9 -19 -24 -28 -3 12 17 700-850 TADV 9 9 7 5 3 3 -1 -3 -2 -13 -12 -16 -13 -13 -6 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 83 161 259 259 235 292 323 382 423 530 681 769 1005 1274 1618 1974 2320 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.1 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.9 93.2 94.5 95.8 97.0 99.3 101.7 104.0 106.2 108.7 111.2 114.0 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 11 12 12 11 11 13 13 14 17 19 19 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 23 23 27 32 41 38 34 30 21 18 14 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 15. 25. 34. 39. 43. 48. 53. 57. 60. 63. 66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 13. 24. 34. 41. 43. 44. 44. 47. 49. 50. 51. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.4 91.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.0 36.9 to 148.5 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 21.3% 10.4% 4.1% 1.8% 13.8% 37.2% 49.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 6.9% 5.5% Consensus: 0.7% 7.8% 3.7% 1.4% 0.6% 4.8% 14.7% 18.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##