* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 40 43 46 47 50 57 67 68 67 68 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 40 43 46 47 50 57 67 68 67 68 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 39 47 49 48 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 16 19 15 18 20 16 23 20 18 4 10 7 5 23 28 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 5 3 4 4 4 0 -5 -5 10 0 SHEAR DIR 310 295 299 286 265 269 247 260 265 282 300 300 338 311 278 234 252 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.6 25.4 24.6 24.2 19.2 16.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 140 139 142 143 144 138 139 140 136 134 112 106 104 84 79 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 58 58 56 53 50 51 52 58 65 66 59 46 42 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 9 9 10 11 11 14 20 20 18 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 -5 -13 -12 -35 -33 -45 -46 -58 -39 -10 11 -5 5 0 1 200 MB DIV -22 -15 11 11 30 37 14 19 18 19 38 55 15 17 13 17 9 700-850 TADV 10 12 13 14 18 11 9 9 6 9 7 26 32 -1 14 1 -29 LAND (KM) 1472 1396 1327 1277 1258 1238 1263 1285 1328 1393 1604 1493 1132 864 820 1213 1192 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 20.1 21.0 21.9 22.8 24.2 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 30.4 33.2 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.1 48.5 49.6 50.4 51.0 52.1 52.9 53.7 54.4 54.9 54.3 52.5 50.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 11 10 8 6 6 5 8 13 18 21 21 26 33 37 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 28 26 30 25 19 15 16 16 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 20 CX,CY: -13/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 22. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. 1. 9. 8. 4. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 25. 32. 42. 43. 42. 43. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.1 47.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 14.3% 9.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 10.2% 6.3% 3.1% 1.1% 6.1% 7.5% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.4% 5.7% 3.4% 0.4% 2.1% 5.7% 2.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/30/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 32 35 40 43 46 47 50 57 67 68 67 68 73 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 32 37 40 43 44 47 54 64 65 64 65 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 32 35 38 39 42 49 59 60 59 60 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 24 27 30 31 34 41 51 52 51 52 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT