* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 41 51 60 65 66 65 65 68 69 69 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 41 51 60 65 66 65 65 68 69 69 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 43 47 51 53 54 55 55 56 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 11 8 10 14 14 12 14 20 17 9 3 7 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 3 -2 0 -1 -1 1 3 7 SHEAR DIR 125 127 131 119 106 31 44 49 21 7 2 9 5 299 259 217 191 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.6 30.1 30.4 29.7 29.5 28.8 28.5 27.3 26.1 25.5 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 171 172 172 167 170 163 161 154 151 140 128 122 123 122 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 7 9 7 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 74 76 75 78 76 71 70 67 63 59 58 53 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 16 7 5 21 9 15 2 19 17 11 19 42 35 39 55 70 200 MB DIV 81 56 20 40 41 61 52 42 41 16 -10 -34 -8 -38 -13 -12 23 700-850 TADV 8 7 4 3 0 0 -3 0 -4 -7 -10 -10 -7 -4 -3 -7 0 LAND (KM) 191 262 229 249 272 335 387 438 531 699 782 945 1205 1517 1842 2218 2094 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.7 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 95.1 96.5 97.7 98.9 101.3 103.6 105.9 108.2 110.7 113.3 116.2 119.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 15 18 19 20 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 26 28 31 39 42 33 23 26 16 16 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 15. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 49. 52. 55. 57. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 35. 40. 41. 40. 40. 43. 44. 44. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 93.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.96 9.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.1% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 30.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 14.0% 5.3% 2.2% 1.1% 10.5% 46.9% 50.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 11.7% Consensus: 0.4% 15.1% 8.3% 0.8% 0.4% 11.4% 26.0% 20.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##