* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 42 48 49 54 61 66 70 82 85 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 42 48 49 54 61 66 70 82 85 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 30 30 32 33 36 42 48 52 55 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 15 21 25 17 19 14 13 9 5 13 15 13 22 21 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 -1 -3 2 0 5 1 4 5 1 -4 1 4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 301 298 278 259 266 269 246 258 265 298 320 344 351 231 232 255 281 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.8 26.1 25.7 24.9 20.3 15.3 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 139 141 142 143 140 136 138 135 136 118 115 110 88 77 76 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 57 56 54 52 51 54 57 66 69 67 54 47 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 12 12 13 18 21 23 30 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -5 -9 -9 -25 -45 -44 -51 -55 -48 -24 -9 20 3 39 8 0 200 MB DIV -7 16 17 25 27 14 -6 40 20 26 22 44 31 0 39 28 -9 700-850 TADV 13 14 14 18 15 14 10 6 10 4 32 22 21 -4 -24 13 29 LAND (KM) 1462 1408 1359 1328 1317 1313 1331 1368 1427 1566 1592 1289 986 781 1031 1304 544 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.6 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.4 29.9 32.3 35.2 38.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.8 49.6 50.3 50.8 51.9 52.8 53.6 54.1 54.1 52.8 50.6 48.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 10 15 19 20 26 35 37 32 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 23 31 32 20 16 12 13 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 22. 19. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. -1. 1. 6. 9. 12. 20. 18. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 17. 23. 24. 29. 36. 41. 45. 57. 60. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 47.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 12.8% 8.8% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 6.8% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 4.3% 5.7% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.1% 4.3% 2.7% 0.2% 1.5% 4.7% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/30/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 42 48 49 54 61 66 70 82 85 84 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 33 37 39 45 46 51 58 63 67 79 82 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 32 34 40 41 46 53 58 62 74 77 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 26 32 33 38 45 50 54 66 69 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT