* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/30/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 42 53 69 77 82 82 87 91 93 96 99 99 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 42 53 69 77 82 82 87 91 93 96 99 99 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 32 38 48 59 71 79 83 87 92 94 99 102 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 8 4 7 14 8 12 9 10 9 9 5 3 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 1 0 2 1 -1 -1 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 131 129 132 126 96 52 50 65 22 9 33 35 61 45 120 322 360 SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.8 30.9 31.0 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.7 27.7 27.1 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 171 172 172 172 170 169 166 162 157 153 143 137 137 130 127 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 77 76 77 76 73 69 67 63 60 57 56 51 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 7 8 13 15 18 18 21 23 24 26 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -1 -8 -2 1 -1 -2 9 19 22 15 50 58 58 73 91 104 200 MB DIV 50 16 24 31 33 63 35 58 10 3 8 0 -29 -26 -24 9 15 700-850 TADV 6 2 4 1 -1 0 -3 1 -6 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 218 151 163 194 227 302 375 468 625 792 923 1151 1427 1723 2045 2355 2264 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.4 97.7 98.9 100.1 102.5 104.9 107.2 109.6 112.2 114.9 118.0 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 14 16 17 18 18 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 37 38 42 42 35 28 26 19 16 13 4 4 1 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 12. 21. 29. 34. 38. 43. 47. 51. 54. 56. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 4. 12. 16. 20. 19. 22. 22. 21. 21. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 17. 28. 44. 52. 57. 57. 62. 66. 68. 71. 74. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 95.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.2% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 25.4% 28.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 8.0% 3.2% 1.2% 0.6% 8.6% 21.4% 28.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 13.4% 7.9% 0.4% 0.3% 11.3% 16.7% 9.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##