* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962023 07/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 45 49 55 68 74 72 65 61 60 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 45 49 55 68 74 72 65 61 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 39 46 47 44 42 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 17 20 22 11 14 9 11 5 14 3 12 21 20 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 -1 6 0 0 5 2 -2 0 -4 -8 -9 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 307 294 276 283 289 261 271 265 287 277 277 262 277 303 330 324 312 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.0 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 146 148 145 143 141 142 143 140 137 124 112 112 115 118 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 -55.3 -55.7 -55.6 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 55 54 54 49 47 48 50 58 67 65 61 60 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 20 23 21 17 14 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -3 -6 -22 -28 -24 -41 -26 -19 -31 -63 -60 -71 -77 -67 -57 -46 200 MB DIV 22 26 34 28 14 16 14 19 1 28 41 32 32 -3 -10 -2 -13 700-850 TADV 13 18 16 10 14 5 12 0 3 6 11 2 11 4 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1284 1197 1151 1125 1106 1121 1141 1180 1230 1355 1541 1591 1395 1330 1344 1398 1501 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.3 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.5 25.4 26.1 26.8 28.1 29.8 32.3 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.0 51.8 52.4 53.0 53.8 54.5 54.8 55.0 54.9 54.4 53.0 50.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 8 8 6 5 3 5 7 12 14 10 6 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 30 37 37 29 23 20 20 19 10 10 4 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 11. 14. 11. 4. -1. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 30. 43. 49. 47. 40. 36. 35. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 49.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962023 INVEST 07/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.3% 6.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 1.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.5% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962023 INVEST 07/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962023 INVEST 07/30/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 45 49 55 68 74 72 65 61 60 58 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 37 44 48 54 67 73 71 64 60 59 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 33 40 44 50 63 69 67 60 56 55 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 26 33 37 43 56 62 60 53 49 48 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT