* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 07/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 34 31 31 30 31 32 37 44 42 41 47 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 34 31 31 30 31 32 37 44 42 41 47 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 30 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 17 21 33 41 50 52 51 44 19 14 23 28 30 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 7 6 8 5 8 7 7 8 10 3 0 1 1 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 123 134 148 181 187 183 212 228 248 281 301 315 195 204 200 209 228 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 28.6 28.7 28.1 27.8 25.7 19.5 18.0 17.6 17.6 19.2 21.6 21.9 22.4 20.9 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 148 150 143 140 118 84 80 79 78 80 85 84 86 83 83 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -54.1 -54.4 -55.3 -55.4 -54.9 -54.0 -53.1 -52.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 52 54 47 52 58 56 51 52 49 41 36 40 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 13 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 8 6 7 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -16 -14 8 10 -2 -11 -22 -52 -90 -116 -136 -110 -138 -173 -7 8 200 MB DIV 8 13 24 8 29 45 69 28 3 -54 -30 -109 -37 -1 13 25 32 700-850 TADV -6 3 -2 -7 1 -27 42 30 18 49 21 1 -2 7 5 -10 -26 LAND (KM) 140 211 289 408 573 713 587 309 755 1395 1207 926 819 945 1049 951 613 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.0 33.4 33.9 34.8 37.3 40.8 44.6 47.6 48.9 47.8 44.9 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 75.7 73.8 71.8 69.5 63.6 57.3 50.4 42.6 33.9 25.8 20.5 19.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 17 19 23 28 32 31 31 29 26 20 10 6 5 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 37 66 24 29 13 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 18. 19. 18. 15. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -5. -4. -8. -12. -11. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 9. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 12. 19. 17. 16. 22. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.8 77.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 07/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.74 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 13.4% 9.1% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 5.9% 6.0% 3.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.5% 5.1% 3.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 07/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 07/30/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 34 31 31 30 31 32 37 44 42 41 47 63 61 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 31 28 28 27 28 29 34 41 39 38 44 60 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 24 24 23 24 25 30 37 35 34 40 56 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 16 16 15 16 17 22 29 27 26 32 48 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT