* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962023 07/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 31 45 58 73 79 84 83 90 91 96 97 98 97 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 31 45 58 73 79 84 83 90 91 96 97 98 97 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 30 36 46 56 67 74 79 86 96 102 105 106 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 6 4 7 8 12 5 11 9 9 11 11 6 1 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 -2 2 -1 2 -3 -1 2 9 8 4 SHEAR DIR 136 142 141 88 68 33 65 52 20 33 43 53 49 69 191 224 180 SST (C) 30.5 31.1 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.5 29.5 29.2 28.5 27.6 28.4 28.1 27.0 27.7 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 172 172 172 170 171 161 158 151 142 151 148 136 143 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 75 74 74 73 69 68 66 62 58 58 56 55 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 4 5 9 11 14 16 19 17 22 22 26 26 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -9 -1 -9 -10 5 -2 15 14 21 22 54 71 79 91 98 108 200 MB DIV 21 31 21 20 34 51 38 27 15 12 -7 17 -1 -17 -22 -8 -17 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -5 -4 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 130 136 180 213 253 344 443 591 809 944 1157 1451 1740 2058 2335 2506 2320 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.5 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 98.1 99.4 100.6 101.7 104.1 106.5 109.0 111.6 114.4 117.3 120.6 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 12 11 13 13 14 15 17 16 16 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 60 61 54 49 42 37 24 29 14 8 14 12 3 5 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 2. 11. 19. 27. 32. 37. 42. 47. 51. 54. 57. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 14. 17. 21. 19. 24. 21. 23. 21. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 20. 33. 48. 54. 59. 58. 65. 66. 71. 72. 73. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 96.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.99 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 28.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.9% 3.2% 1.0% 0.6% 4.9% 22.0% 25.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.3% Consensus: 0.2% 11.5% 7.6% 0.4% 0.2% 9.4% 16.9% 9.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962023 INVEST 07/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##